Engineering Economics and Infrastructure Planning

Executive Summary of Tullamarine Freeway Analysis

The case study report is related to a Huge Traffic issue, which Melbourne citizens are facing in Tullamarine Freeway from Bulla Road to Sunbury Road, it is the main route to approach Airport. Main issue is that now it is taking almost 3 times to travel which it used to take in 2000, i.e from 11 minutes in 2000 to 36.5 minutes in 2020. In this report, two options are analysed further for its feasibly out of various options available to identify the best one in terms of time taken and cost effectiveness. Options analysed are:-

Option 1 – Railway from Melbourne airport to Sunshine station

Option 3 – Widening Tullamarine Freeway

Introduction to Tullamarine Freeway Analysis

Tullamarine Freeway, which is commonly referred as “Tulla” is the main urban freeway in Melbourne which links Airport to City. It is 13 KM, M2 freeway. (WE EF LIVE 2018), it is one of the busiest freeways in Australia, carrying up to 210,000 vehicles/day. And this has creates a huge traffic turmoil every day on this stretch and travels have to spend almost 3 times of the actual time it should take. There is huge wastage of time, energy in terms of fuel and manpower. Following options are available to overcome this situation :-

Option 1 - Railway from Melbourne terminal to Sunshine station A railway was recommended to link Melbourne airport on the rail system. This will relieve the visitors at Tullamarine Freeway. The proposed railway would've 2 rail tracks (one for every direction). The line measurements is 27km, and variety of station inside the path hasn't been decided.

Option 2 - Building a tunnel Build 2 tunnels that connect Citylink (from Bulla road) to the terminal. The tunnels are around 6km each and also will have 2 lanes each direction.

Option 3 - Widening Tullamarine Freeway The present Freeway has 4 lanes each way. Adding extra lanes on the freeway (one additional lane per direction) is the final choice.

Option 4 - Do nothing (with normal maintenance and operation, etc.) Keep present state with normal maintenance and operation.

Problem Diagnosis

Problem statement is the High Travel Time and Cost incurred due to Fuel and time of citizen for the additional time taken.

Goal and objective articulations: Goal is to reduce the time required to travel to Airport by finding the best alternative option and also reduce the load on the Tullamarine Freeway, which was originally made with a target of 20000 Vehicles

Basic Cost Information: As per the Information Available cost estimates are:-

Land

Commercial/Residential Land => $1 Billion per km2

Industrial land => $750 Million per km2

Arable/Farming/Other => $400 Million per km2

Construction

Railway => $35 Million/KM

Tunnels => $550 Million/KM

Widening the Freeway => $7 Million / plane/ KM

Forecasting

Option 1- Railway Track

Assumptions:-

  • Life of the Railway coaches: 20 Years Minimum
  • Capital Cost: - Additional Coaches to be used to carry passenger, but assumed that it will be from the current stock only no additional coaches will be acquired
  • More No. of Trains will be required in the morning hours of 6 AM to 9 AM and evening 5 PM to 9 PM
  • Land Requirement is 30 KM ( as 27 KM for track + 10% extra additional)
  • Station construction cost is also not considered as current stations will be used
  • Type of Land- Farm land will be used as generally tracks are near farms only
  • Currently No. of Passengers travelling Approx.- 70000(Vehicle/Day ) So approx. 70000 even if it is one person per vehicle
  • Capacity of the Freeway : 20000Vehicles
  • So Gap is = 70000-20000= 50000 Passenger
  • Let’s Assume the Target is to reduce the burden by 20000 i.e. 40% and shift them to alternative option of travel by train
  • Let’s assume Maintenance cost is .5% per year
  • Cost of Capital is 5%

Option 2- Widening Tullamarine Freeway (currently 4 lane to be extended to 6 lane one lane each direction)

Assumption:-

Land Requirement: So it is 13 KM and widening will require to acquire the side land of the Freeway which is again an open area and farm land only so acquiring land both sides by 13KM * 2 i.e. 26 + 10% additional as contingency

Widening the road will increase the capacity to at least 35000 vehicles and which will reduce the Travel time by 40% at least i.e. by 15 Minutes/Vehicle

Let’s assume the maintenance cost is 1% per annum

Assumed cost of capital is 5%

Trip cost includes tolls plus vehicle matching fees of $0.55 per trip on CityLink & $0.30 for EastLink. (Source: https://www.linkt.com.au/melbourne/using-toll-roads/toll-calculator)

Project Cost – Initial

Options

Option 1( all cost in $)

Option 3( all cost in $)

Description

Railway from Melbourne airport to Sunshine station

Widening Tullamarine Freeway

Land Requirement

30 KMs

29 KMs

Cost/KM^2

400Million

400Million

Land cost (Million)

12000

11600

Construction cost /KM

35Million/KM

7 Million /KM

Total Construction Cost

900

182

Total Cost (A +B)

12900

11782

So Initial Cash Outlay

12900 Million

11782 Million

Calculation of Train Fare /KM = Metro operates a train from Flinders Street to Brighton Beach every 20 minutes. Tickets cost $5 and the journey takes 23 min.

(Source:

Lets’ say fare for this trip will be fixed as $3/ ticket

No of passenger: - let’s say 30% of the passengers will move to alternative option i.e trains which is 63000*30% = 18900 or let’s say 20000

Total Revenue Per day = 20000* $3

Yearly revenue= 20000*3*365

Option 2

Cal ululation of Total No. of Trip:-

As per case study = 63000 Vehicles /Day

No. of Days = 365

Total Trips /Annum = 63000*365 = 22995000

30% of it = 6898500

Toll Charges average /day (for fast link) = $.30/Trip

(Let’s assume 30% will use fast link)

Cash Flow Forecasting for 10 Years

Project -Option 1

With 5% Discounting factor

Particular

Year 0

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Year 6

Year 7

Year 8

Year 9

Year 10

Initial Investment

-12900

                   

Cash inflow - Fare collection

 

21.9

21.9

21.9

21.9

21.9

21.9

21.9

21.9

21.9

21.9

Less

                     

Cash outflow- Maintenance @.5%

 

-64.5

-64.5

-64.5

-64.5

-64.5

-64.5

-64.5

-64.5

-64.5

-64.5

                       

Net Cash inflow

-12900

-42.6

-42.6

-42.6

-42.6

-42.6

-42.6

-42.6

-42.6

-42.6

-42.6

PVF @5%

0

0.9524

0.9070

0.8638

0.8227

0.7835

0.7835

0.7835

0.7835

0.7835

0.7835

PV

-12900

-40.5714

-38.6395

-36.7995

-35.0471

-33.3782

-33.3782

-33.3782

-33.3782

-33.3782

-33.3782

NPV

-14085.8

                   

 

Project Option 3

With 5% Discounting factor

               
   

Particular

Year 0

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Year 6

Year 7

Year 8

Year 9

Year 10

Initial Investment

-11782

                   

Cash inflow -toll collection @ .30 / Trip

 

2.06955

2.06955

2.06955

2.06955

2.06955

2.06955

2.06955

2.06955

2.06955

2.06955

Less

                     

Cash outflow- Maintenance @1%

 

-117.82

-117.82

-117.82

-117.82

-117.82

-117.82

-117.82

-117.82

-117.82

-117.82

                       

Net Cash inflow

-11782

-115.75

-115.75

-115.75

-115.75

-115.75

-115.75

-115.75

-115.75

-115.75

-115.75

PVF @5%

0

0.9524

0.9070

0.8638

0.8227

0.7835

0.7835

0.7835

0.7835

0.7835

0.7835

PV

-11782

-110.239

-104.989

-99.9896

-95.2282

-90.6935

-90.6935

-90.6935

-90.6935

-90.6935

-90.6935

NPV

-15003.9

                   

Cash flow projections for the 35 year life cycle is projected in the excel attached.

Analysis of Tullamarine Freeway Analysis

As this is a infrastructure project so financial perspective direct profitability is not expected , only thing is which option will required less investment and further cash outflow to continue the operations and will also give maximum benefit in the future from that angle Option 1 is better as there is very small difference in terms of initial cost but yearly cost in future and revenue generated every year is 10 times from option 2 i.e. option 1 toll collection is only 2.1 whereas the fare collection is 21.9, and NPV for whole life of the period for both the options option 1 will be less negative.

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