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An Analysis Of The Past Power Consumption And Future Power Estimation Of Chennai

Introduction to India’s Residential Electricity Consumption Analysis

Electricity is the backbone of any economic activity in a country presently and it’s proven that this perishable commodity is directly responsible for the economic growth of a territory or country. A country’s development is measured on its precipitate consumption of electricity, among other factors, which also indicates how much electricity is produced. India however has some electricity projects with Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh and buys that electricity from these respective countries (Sahu, 2008). India has the fifth largest installed capacity of electricity in the world and as it is a developing nation it is one the top power consumers of the world. Thus India needs more installed capacity for electricity in the coming period looking at the aim of the government of India of making it a 5 T $ economy by 2025 (IEA, 2020 ).

Electricity Usage And Consumption Pattern In Chennai

Tamil Nadu is one of the heaviest industrialized states in India with Chennai being the capital. It has an international airport, seaports, rail, and road and water connectivity to an extent. The state has always been ahead in enticing industries to set up in the state. Thus the electricity demand for the state continues to rise and is expected to rise in the coming year, though a more precise focus has now been on the clean production of electricity. During the independence, the state board had an installed capacity of 156 MW and in 2019, it was around 12,000 MW with coal-based capacity being 3220 MW, 1100 MW with 5 gas turbine plants (Srikanth, 2019), 2200 MW from hydroelectric plants. The share of solar power has not been mentioned for 2010 as it was negligible. The Tamil nadir state’s installed solar capacity was 142 MW in 2015 which drastically increased to 2600 MW in 2019 when total India’s installed was 35,700 MW (Vijaykumar, 2020). Thus Tamil nadir has paid special attention to clean energy’ solar alternative as it has laid sufficient scope on wind power already.

Chennai is located in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu which is the southernmost state in mainland India. Chennai is located in the north eastern part of Tamil nadir plains. It has an average elevation of 6.7 meters with the highest point being 60 meters. It is located in the western Ghats which is an ecologically important region of India (Ganesan et al, 2015). The climate of Chennai should be understood first to understand the energy consumption of this south Indian state which is surrounded by the Arabian sea, Indian ocean, pal strait, and the Bay of Bengal, all these entities lay their climactic effect on Chennai in particular and in Tamil nadir in general. Chennai comes under the seismic zone 3 of Indian standard which indicates a moderate risk of earthquakes. Two major rivers of Chennai are Cooum and Adyar. However, the estuaries of these rivers are heavily polluted. The climate of Chennai is a dry summer tropical wet and dry climate under the Koppen climate classification which indicates all year hot climate with dry and humid conditions alternatively which are affected by the monsoonal and trade winds as the city lies on the thermal equator. The average rainfall is 140 cams and the lowest average temperature is 19 digress centigrades with the highest average temperature being 40 degrees. The mean yearly sunshine hours are 2848 and average relative humidity of 69 and the mean daily sunshine hours being 7.8 (Ganesan et al, 2015).

On average, the Chennai consumes 20 % of the total electricity consumption of the state with the highest consumption being 53 MU which was recorded in June 2013 and the domestic consumers make the largest consumers in the city (Dhass et al, 2018). The pattern of the average consumption of Chennai city has remained stagnant form 2014-16 at 20 % of the total consumption of the state. The city's part of consumption in 2016 was 1500 MW but the city consumed 3000 MW on an average peak evening demand. The industries of Chennai use 37 % of the electricity, the domestic sector being the second with consumption growing from 2,5 % per annum to 30 % (Sahu, 2008). On the other hand, consumption for agriculture purposes has come down from 27 % to 18 % and the commercial supply marked 11.5 % (Dhass et al, 2018). The peak power consumption of the city is for the four months period which is between May and August. During 2013, the state consumed 74,000 MU while the city in the amen year consumed 53,000 MU (Anandan and Sankaravelu, 2013). To fulfill the last five decades electricity demand, the Tamil nadir electricity board has continued to increase its installed power capacity from time to time and has given a separate budget for it every year, also the Tamil nadir government has been strictly following the social obligations relating to agriculture and weaker sections electricity availability and thus in 1992 alone, Tamil nadir became the first 100 % electrified state (Anandan and Sankaravelu, 2013). Thus it is obvious as the economic and social development is on the radar of a developing state, its power consumption need will continue to rise, the question here is at what rate the growth of electricity demand will go up? The wind capacity of Tamil nadir has been spectacular with 4300 Mw in 2009 which was 42 % of the total installed of India (Anandan and Sankaravelu, 2013). The government of Tamil nadir has been increasingly dependent on and aims to provide additional demand based on only renewable power.

In May 2020, the peak hour demand in Chennai crossed 13,400 MW and the consumption has crossed 300 MU per day in (Vijaykumar, 2020). Tamil node’s highest electricity demand was recorded in 2019 aril, with maximum consumption recorded at 370 MU. However, renewable forms the second-largest installed power supply in Tamil nadir, thanks to the proactive and early clean energy thinking of the government. Chennai is a high AC user and that around 60 % of the total Chennai household consumption goes into AC use. It is now clear that by the needs of 2019 and 2020 (Vijaykumar, 2020), the city is demanding continuously increased electricity needs which are estimated to remain in trend for the coming years. It was also found that the per capita consumption of electronic items like fridge, AC, tube lights, geysers, etc is much higher in Chennai compared to Mysore and Bangalore, the awareness of smart and efficient use of electricity is also much lower in Chennai.

Power Forecasting

Though solar photovoltaics are not much friendly to Tamil nadir looking at the climactic conditions of Tamil nadir. The PV panels installed in high temperatures and humid areas were reported to be damaged before the normal life, thu8s are not reliable under hot conditions (Dhass et al, 2018). The Pv panels installed in the regions of high temperatures like deserts have their pawn disadvantages and advantages. The central electricity authority states that Tamil nadir is likely to report a power surplus in the year 2020-21 also with its peak demand. The Peak demand is expected ion 2020-21 to be about 16,800 MW with the estimated availability of 17,500 MW (Spenser and Awasthi, n.d.). Tamil Nadu contributes around 16 % of total India’s installed capacity of the grid-connected power supply (Vijaykumar, 2020). The renewable power capacity of Tamil nadir is 42 % of its total installed capacity (Spenser and Awasthi, n.d.).

Chennai’s electricity utility is used by a range of consumers which are residential, industrial, public building, institutions, commercials with high and low tension tariffs. Consumers over time have varied and changed their electricity consumption patterns. For example, the electricity peaks in Chennai comes after sunset, in the evening, and the increased demand for Ac and cooling systems a new peak in the afternoon is expected to come. Thus too effectively forecast demand is very important for efficient production and use of electricity as it cannot be saved or stored. Excess production will result in wastage of resources and lesser production will result in loss of economic activities. There is also a staunch need to understand the demand of those consumer areas which are not metered. For example, the Chennai district’s agriculture consumers are majorly unmetered. Though there are efforts to meter at the feeding level, still there is very limited data on agriculture demand and use which will affect planning. There are some more uncertainty challenges which make it possible to exactly forecast the demand for electricity in Chennai. The electricity demand in Tamil nadir has peaked at 15 GW though anticipated was 20 GW in 2020, it was because of the slowdown of the pandemic. But in normal conditions currently, the demand is 20 GW for the state (Vijaykumar, 2020). Tamil nadir and especially Chennai are industrially very aggressive and always eyes on new industries opening, also the state is a flag bearer of renewable energy and thus the government of India has plans to utilize the utmost potential of Tamil nadir in case of wind power, hydroelectricity, and solar power. These aspects make the demand forecasting for Tamil nadir and Chennai to be increasingly positive. Recently the TANGEDCO discom reform is planned, a 3 GW renewable energy tender was planned, the solar mission of India continues in the state (Vijaykumar, 2020).

Chennai has a population of 80 lakh as of 2017 revised estimates of census India. The level of urbanization in Tamil nadir is highest in the country when urban areas accounting for 49 % of the total population against the national average of 31 %, also the state provides free electricity to agriculture to boost the primary sector. Industrial energy needs in India has grown with a rate of 7.7 per annum from 2002 to 2016 (Spenser and Awasthi, n.d.), which is lower than the industrial needs of Tamil nadir. The agriculture electricity needs in India are expected to be between 6.8 to 8 %. The service sector is the fastest-growing in terms of electricity demand with a CAGR of 8.8 % (Spenser and Awasthi, n.d.). The residential and household electricity demand is the second highest after the service sector and the total estimation of energy needs can reach between 646 to 748 TWh in 2030 in India (Spenser and Awasthi, n.d.). Though separate estimates of energy estimation of Chennai are not found the estimations regarding Tamil nadir and India can be helpful for the estimation of the power needs of Chennai. And the electricity consumption needs are expected to grow at a CAGR of 6 to 7 % in Tamil Nadu (Roseline and Mathur, 2011).

Conclusion on India’s Residential Electricity Consumption Analysis

The annual power growth of 6.8 % of India is expected till 2030 when Tamil nadir is among the states with several factors responsible for more than the country's average electricity needs and its growth which are higher urbanization than then national average, a higher amount of electricity available per day then national average, industrial expansion on a rapid rate and 100 electricity availed population. All these factors will forecast a higher power need then the national average for Chennai. Thus a forecast could be made for Chennai based on India and Tamil nadir numbers.

References for India’s Residential Electricity Consumption Analysis

Roseline., A. and Mathur, B. 2011. Tamil Nadu power sector reform and restructuring — A case study. [Online] Available at: DOI: 10.1109/DRPT.2011.5994078. [Accessed on: 10 october, 2020]

Spenser, T. and Awasthi, A. n.d. Analysing and Projecting Indian Electricity Demand to 2030. [Online] Available at: https://www.teriin.org/sites/default/files/2019-02/Analysing%20and%20Projecting%20Indian%20Electricity%20Demand%20to%202030.pdf. [Accessed on: 10 october, 2020]

Dhass, A., Laxmi, P. and Natarjan, N. 2018. Analysis of performance degradation parameters of the photovoltaic system in Chennai. International Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics 118, 20.pp. 439-447

Sahu, S. 2008. Trends and Patterns of Energy Consumption in India. Indian Institute of Technology, Madras, India.

Anandan, M and Sankaravelu, R. 2013. Energy Uses in India: A Case of Electricity. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331929537_Energy_Uses_in_India_A_Case_of_Electricity

Vijaykumar, S. 2020. Power surplus likely in Tamil Nadu in 2020-21. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/power-surplus-likely-in-state-in-2020-21/article32250578.ece

IEA. 2020. India 2020. Energy policy review. https://niti.gov.in/sites/default/files/2020-01/IEA-India%202020-In-depth-EnergyPolicy_0.pdf

CPR India. 2017. Trends in India’s Residential Electricity Consumption. https://cprindia.org/news/6519

Buckley, T. and Shah, K. 2018. Electricity Sector Transformation in India A Case Study of Tamil Nadu. IEEFA. https://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Electricity-Sector-Transformation-in-India-A-Case-Study-of-Tamil-Nadu_7-Feb-2018.pdf

Srikanth, R. 2019. Peak power demand in Chennai falls off earlier highs. https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/chennai/peak-power-demand-in-chennai-falls-off-earlier-highs/article26950546.ece

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